Tokenized US Treasuries 229% Growth in 2025: CoinShares 2026 Forecast for Onchain Yield

The tokenized US Treasuries market has exploded onto the scene, surging 229% in 2025 according to CoinShares’ latest 2026 Digital Asset Outlook report. From $3.91 billion at the start of the year to $8.68 billion by December, these on-chain versions of America’s safest asset have captured institutional attention like never before. As a risk management specialist, I’ve watched this shift with keen interest, it’s not just hype; it’s a structural change in how fixed-income investors access yield in a volatile world.

Breaking Down the CoinShares Numbers: A 229% Leap Forward

CoinShares reports that the broader RWA market, excluding stablecoins, ballooned from $5.5 billion end-2024 to $18.1 billion by year-end 2025. Tokenized US Treasuries led the charge, more than doubling in value, while private credit nearly doubled from $9.85 billion to $18.58 billion. This isn’t random; it’s fueled by global hunger for dollar-denominated yield amid economic uncertainty. Ethereum hosts over $4.9 billion of these Treasuries, cementing its role as the go-to chain for serious money.

10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Technical Analysis Chart

Analysis by Market Analyst | Symbol: TVC:US10Y | Interval: 1D | Drawings: 7

technical-analysis

Market Analyst’s Insights

As a technical analyst with 5 years experience and medium risk tolerance, I see the US10Y yield in a clear bearish trend amid tokenized Treasury growth context, suggesting continued decline if below 3.30%, but balanced view notes oversold RSI potential bounce. Tokenization boom supports lower yields as demand for safe assets rises. Watch for breakout below 3.20% for further downside.

Technical Analysis Summary

Draw a descending trend line connecting the swing high at 2026-01-15 around 4.2% to the swing high at 2026-02-01 around 3.8%, extending to current price near 3.25%. Add horizontal lines at support 3.20% and resistance 3.50%. Use fib retracement from recent low 3.20% to high 3.8%. Mark consolidation rectangle from 2026-01-25 to current at 3.25%-3.40%. Arrow down at MACD bearish crossover. Vertical line at potential Fed news in late Jan 2026. Text labels for key levels.

Risk Assessment: medium

Analysis: Bearish trend intact but oversold conditions and low volume suggest potential pullback; tokenized demand context supportive of lower yields

Market Analyst’s Recommendation: Short bias with tight stops, medium position size per my tolerance

Key Support & Resistance Levels

📈 Support Levels:

• $3.2 – Recent low and psychological level
  strong
• $3.1 – Fib 61.8% retracement
  moderate

📉 Resistance Levels:

• $3.5 – Recent swing high and 50% fib
  strong
• $3.7 – Prior consolidation top
  moderate

Trading Zones (medium risk tolerance)

🎯 Entry Zones:

• $3.25 – Short entry on bounce from support with bearish confirmation
  medium risk

🚪 Exit Zones:

• $3.2 – Profit target at next support
  💰 profit target
• $3.5 – Stop loss above resistance
  🛡️ stop loss

Technical Indicators Analysis

📊 Volume Analysis:

Pattern: declining on down moves

Volume drying up on declines, suggesting weakening bear momentum

📈 MACD Analysis:

Signal: bearish crossover

MACD line below signal, histogram negative

Applied TradingView Drawing Utilities

This chart analysis utilizes the following professional drawing tools:

Trend LineHorizontal LineFib RetracementRectangleArrow Mark DownCalloutTextVertical Line

Disclaimer: This technical analysis by Market Analyst is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice.
Trading involves risk, and you should always do your own research before making investment decisions.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. The analysis reflects the author’s personal methodology and risk tolerance (medium).

What makes this compelling is the minimal risk premium over traditional Treasuries. Investors are ditching zero-yield stablecoins for these tokenized bills and notes, which offer real returns with blockchain’s speed and transparency. As current data shows, the 10-Year U. S. Treasury Yield sits at $3.25, down 1.52% in the last 24 hours, yet on-chain demand remains robust.

Ethereum’s Lock on Tokenized Yield: Why It Matters

Ethereum’s dominance isn’t accidental. With over $4.9 billion in tokenized US Treasuries, it benefits from deep liquidity, mature DeFi protocols like AAVE (which holds a hefty chunk), and robust security. This network effect draws institutions seeking composability, use these tokens as collateral, lend them out, or trade 24/7 without T and 1 settlement delays. For risk-conscious investors like you, this means better capital efficiency without sacrificing the US government’s backing.

Supportively, this convergence bridges TradFi and DeFi. BlackRock’s BUIDL fund and Franklin Templeton’s offerings exemplify how big players are tokenizing billions, proving blockchain’s infrastructure maturity.

Investor Shift: Treasuries Over Stablecoins in Yield Hunt

CoinShares CEO Jean-Marie Mognetti nails it: “If 2025 was the year of the graceful return, 2026 looks positioned to be a year of consolidation into the real economy. ” Investors agree, favoring Treasuries when yields beat stablecoin nothingness with tiny risk add-ons. Analyst Matthew Kimmell adds that tokenization now pulls in ‘reputable firms, ‘ not just crypto natives, regulators see blockchain as legit rails too.

This preference drives on-chain yield’s future. Picture repos and T-bills as DeFi collateral, slashing costs and boosting liquidity. My mantra holds: manage risk, maximize reward, tokenized Treasuries deliver both.

As rates fluctuate, tokenized Treasuries offer a hedge against volatility, with current 10-Year U. S. Treasury Yield at $3.25, down 1.52% in the last 24 hours (high $3.30, low $3.20). This stability draws institutions fleeing crypto swings for reliable dollar yield. Platforms like tokentreasury. xyz make it simple to explore these assets, blending TradFi safety with DeFi speed.

Risk Management in Onchain Yield: Balancing the Equation

In my decade balancing traditional and DeFi risks, tokenized Treasuries stand out for their low volatility profile. The key is understanding smart contract risks, custodian dependencies, and oracle reliability. Yet, with backing from US government debt, the credit risk mirrors off-chain equivalents. Diversify across issuers like BlackRock or Ondo, monitor chain TVL, and use yield optimizers judiciously. Remember, liquidity on Ethereum’s deep pools minimizes slippage, but always stress-test for black swan events. Yield strategies here can supercharge returns while capping downside.

Supportively, these assets enable 24/7 trading and programmable composability. Lend t-bill tokens on AAVE for extra yield, or use as collateral without selling. This efficiency transforms fixed income from sleepy to strategic.

2026 Catalysts: Convergence Accelerates

CoinShares sees repos and Treasuries powering RWA scaling, with faster settlement and collateral use. Regulatory clarity from SEC nods to tokenized funds will unlock trillions. Watch Solana or Layer 2s challenging Ethereum, but liquidity favors the leader. RedStone predicts $60B by 2026, plausible if yields stay attractive. Onchain collateral evolution is just beginning.

For institutions, tokenized Treasuries cut ops costs 90%, enable global access without borders. Crypto enthusiasts gain yield without volatility drag. My advice: allocate 10-20% to these in portfolios for ballast. Track issuers’ compliance and chain upgrades to stay ahead.

Getting Started Safely

Visit tokentreasury. xyz for vetted products. Start small, verify audits, and pair with hedges. In a world of flux, these tokens embody stability onchain. Manage risk, maximize reward, your tokenized Treasury portfolio awaits.